Hindcast

Part of speech: noun, verb

Definitions

1. To produce a retrospective simulation of past events or data by applying a model to historical inputs to evaluate accuracy or improve predictions
2. The process of reconstructing and analyzing previous conditions or phenomena using computational models based on recorded historical information to test validity
3. Employing computational methods to simulate and verify past occurrences or measurements in order to assess the fidelity of forecasting techniques or understand earlier situations

Etymology: "Hindcast" is a blend of "hind," as in behind or backward, and "forecast." The result turns the forward-looking act of predicting into its reverse: instead of guessing what will happen, one runs a model backward over known past inputs to see whether it would have predicted what actually occurred. The "hind" element is the same one found in "hindsight," which literally means seeing after the fact. Blends of this kind are usually deliberate coinages, built from two familiar words that together name a new concept, and "hindcast" follows that pattern. Its meaning grew out of the practice it names rather than from any older sense of either part on its own. Forecasting has long been tested against past records, and the new word gave that retrospective testing a name of its own.

Synonyms: backcast, retrodiction